Category Archives: Uncategorized

China’s Lehman Moment?

Is China facing a “Lehman Moment” due to high shadow banking debt? China’s shadow banking differs substantially from that of the U.S. before the financial crisis. There, the shadow lending funding the property boom consisted of collateralized and leveraged mortgage products that were highly liquid, traded instruments. Many official banks participated in this business, along […]

Beijing’s Evergrande Solution

Global Source Partners Beijing believes the risks of a US-style financial crisis caused by a property bubble outweigh the risks of an Evergrande default. But it is also encouraging a “soft” landing for the resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems that would avoid political unrest and a bank crisis. How will Beijing resolve this conflict? Beijing […]

“Common Prosperity” and the Economy

Global Source Partners What does Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” mean for the economy? Andrew Collier | Aug 30, 2021 Executive Summary Xi Jinping launched his vision for common prosperity officially in an internal meeting in the Politburo on August 17. This was a follow-on to the harsh regulations imposed on China’s technology sector. Although Xi […]

China Credit Risks: Bloomberg TV

Orient Capital Andrew Collier on China’s Credit Risks, ‘Common Prosperity’ Bloomberg Markets China Open September 6th, 2021, 12:17 PM GMT+0800 Orient Capital Research Managing Director, Andrew Collier, discusses a potential default risks in China of indebted companies such as Evergrande and Huarong. Andrew also tell us what “common prosperity” term may mean for the country’s […]

China’s Education Crackdown – How Far Will This Go?

Global Source Partners China’s Education Crackdown – How Far Will This Go? Andrew Collier | Jul 27, 2021 Executive Summary The new regulatory crackdown on the educational sector in China was a surprising move by China. New Oriental Education’s shares plunged 17.5% on the news. What really is a shock is how small the companies […]

Bloomberg TV Interview – Huarong and the Economy April 16th, 2021, 12:48 PM GMT+0800 Orient Capital Research MD Andrew Collier shares his views on the possibility of China rescuing its biggest distressed asset manager, Huarong. Collier, a former President of the Bank of China International USA, believes that China will protect Huarong, however smaller, local AMCs are more vulnerable. He speaks to […]

Huarong and China’s Economy

Global Source Partners China’s State Council Tuesday issued a decree ordering a “deepening” of reform of the budget management system. The key point is an order to reduce financial risk and increase transparency of local government finance. This order follows the recent cancellation of the Ant Group IPO and stricter regulations of Ant’s online financial […]

No Signs of Credit Restraint inChina

No signs of credit restraint in China Andrew Collier | Mar 24, 2021 Executive Summary There is widespread talk within Beijing following the leadership meetings about a return to lower credit growth following years of excesses. This is being echoed by the western media. The Financial Times just published a piece saying that Xi Jinping […]

Predictions for China 2021

I am making four predictions for China in 2021: Weakening of the RMB Weaker economic conditions Real deleveraging Pressure on local bonds. Capital inflows have been substantial, helping to reinforce the strength of the currency. Higher domestic Chinese interest rates, the rapid quelling of the virus, domestic Chinese stimulus, the relative weakness of western economies, […]