Category Archives: Commentary
China’s Broken Infrastructure Model
The widening fiscal deficit will restrict further stimulus efforts Summary China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through […]
China bank survey: The return of shadow banking
China bank survey: The return of shadow banking Andrew Collier | Conclusion Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been […]
The John Batchelor Show Credit drying up in the PRC & What is to be done? Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research. @GordonGChang @TheDailyBeast Nov 2
China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China?
China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China? Andrew Collier | Oct 15, 2018 I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to […]
NPR Interview: How Trump’s Latest Threatened Tariffs Could Affect China And Its Leadership. All Things Considered
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/03/644355816/how-trumps-latest-threatened-tariffs-could-affect-china-and-its-leadership
Xi Jinping’s Boao Speech – Modest Concessions
Xi Jinping’s Measured Boao Speech Xi Jinping made a surprisingly concessionary speech at the Boao Forum April 10 in response to the escalating trade war instigated by the Trump Administration. I had expected him to avoid making any overt signs of concessions to Trump’s trade threats. Perhaps I underestimated how little these overseas speeches are […]
Bloomberg Radio: Xi Jinping on Trade
Andrew Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research joined Bryan Curtis and Juliette Saly to discuss his expectations for President Xi Jinping’s keynote speech at BOAO in China. He doesn’t expect anything big on the trade spat with the U.S., saying he will instead position China as a country that adheres to trade rules globally. Running […]
China’s Leaders Fret Over Debt
See my comments below…. Published onDecember 29, 2017 Engen Tham, Matthew Miller and David Lague, Reuters SHANGHAI/BEIJING/HONG KONG, Dec 28 (Reuters) – In March 2013, retired chemical company employee Anne Xing, her older sister and their husbands visited a China Everbright Bank branch on the outskirts of Shanghai. A private wealth manager at the bank […]
Financial Opening – Yale Law School Blog on Foreign Policy Magazine
Foreign Policy Lawfare Don’t Trust China’s Opening of Its Financial Sector Inviting foreign investors into a closed economy is a lot easier said than done. BY ANDREW COLLIER | DECEMBER 8, 2017, 7:53 AM Chinese 100 yuan notes and one U.S. dollar on Jan. 6, 2017. (Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images) Two days after President Trump left […]