Category Archives: Commentary

Bond Defaults in China: SOEs are not protected

Summary Bond Defaults in China SOEs are not protected In 2016, there were defaults of 79 Chinese bonds for a total value of Rmb40.3 billion. This was an increase of 243% YoY. We draw several conclusions from default data on future economic policy and how the leadership will handle rising debt: 1)  The MostDefaults were […]

PBOC Good at Saying One Thing And Doing Another: Bloomberg Radio

July 12, 2017 — 10:39 AM HKT Andrew Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research spoke with Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on the on PBOC’s official newspaper saying China should expand the yuan’s trading band. He sees a lot of downward pressure on the yuan. He also looked at the flurry of M&A activity seen […]

How Hong Kong’s Banks Turned Chinese – NPR Interview And that means a sea change is underway for the job prospects of young Hong Kongers. “It used to be that you got out of college in Hong Kong, you were an invaluable resource because you had some sort of Mandarin skills, you spoke English and you were trained in finance, and you had […]

Financial Times: China’s shadow finance time-bomb could trigger crisis

Rising middle class would face harsh lesson if WMPs market collapses beyondbrics © AP Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) 1 Save YESTERDAY by: Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research In the past decade, shadow banking has taught China great lessons about capitalism. That […]

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China Why Shadow Flows are a Better Indication of the Economy’s Strength than Official Data Summary A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: Interbank interest rates. The value of the yuan. The rise or decline of China’s […]

Radio Hong Kong: Cathay Pacific, Bitcoin, and Shadow Banking

Connie Bolland, founder and chief economist at Economic Research Analysis comments on Bitcoin surging to a new record high and says people’s increasing mistrust of central banks contributes to Bitcoin’s rise. Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research says competitive Chinese airlines and banks shrinking travel budget make it difficult for Cathay Pacific to […]