What Will Xi Jinping Do After the Party Congress?

Fiscal Reality Limits his Power over the Economy Summary Most analysts believe Xi Jinping is likely to increase his power following the Party Congress on October 18 by strengthening his control over the Party’s Standing Committee. This, in turn, could give him the political freedom to institute economic reforms, including restructuring of state firms, and […]

HNA’s Shadow Banking

Summary Starting with a registered capital of Rmb10mn, HNA Group has grown its total assets to more than Rmb1trn. In just the past three years, the Group completed acquisitions valued at more than US$40bn. The most frequently asked question now is: where did HNA obtain its capital? Recent articles (see Financial Times, June 2, 2017) […]

Bond Defaults in China: SOEs are not protected

Summary Bond Defaults in China SOEs are not protected In 2016, there were defaults of 79 Chinese bonds for a total value of Rmb40.3 billion. This was an increase of 243% YoY. We draw several conclusions from default data on future economic policy and how the leadership will handle rising debt: 1)  The MostDefaults were […]

China’s Financial Summit: The Leadership Meets Hard Reality

China’s Financial Summit The Leadership Meets Hard Reality On Friday and Saturday July 14 and 15, Beijing will hold a key financial meeting, that is expected to be attended by President Xi Jinping. This may be China’s most import economic planning meeting in several years as it will be a test of Beijing’s ability to […]

PBOC Good at Saying One Thing And Doing Another: Bloomberg Radio

July 12, 2017 — 10:39 AM HKT Andrew Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research spoke with Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on the on PBOC’s official newspaper saying China should expand the yuan’s trading band. He sees a lot of downward pressure on the yuan. He also looked at the flurry of M&A activity seen […]

How Hong Kong’s Banks Turned Chinese – NPR Interview

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/06/30/534967496/how-hong-kongs-banks-turned-chinese And that means a sea change is underway for the job prospects of young Hong Kongers. “It used to be that you got out of college in Hong Kong, you were an invaluable resource because you had some sort of Mandarin skills, you spoke English and you were trained in finance, and you had […]

Financial Times: China’s shadow finance time-bomb could trigger crisis

Rising middle class would face harsh lesson if WMPs market collapses beyondbrics © AP Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) 1 Save YESTERDAY by: Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research In the past decade, shadow banking has taught China great lessons about capitalism. That […]

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China Why Shadow Flows are a Better Indication of the Economy’s Strength than Official Data Summary A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: Interbank interest rates. The value of the yuan. The rise or decline of China’s […]