Category Archives: Research

China’s Broken Infrastructure Model

The widening fiscal deficit will restrict further stimulus efforts Summary China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through […]

China bank survey: The return of shadow banking

China bank survey: The return of shadow banking Andrew Collier | Conclusion Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been […]

Does Xi Jinping Control the Economy?

Xi Jinping is widely viewed as China’s strongest leaders since Deng Xiao Ping thirty years ago. He has consolidated control over the Party, rammed home an anti-corruption campaign, and pledged backing for the expansion of the state sector through programs like “One Belt One Road” and “Made in China 2025.” But behind the flagship programs […]

China’s Leaders Fret Over Debt

See my comments below…. Published onDecember 29, 2017 Engen Tham, Matthew Miller and David Lague, Reuters SHANGHAI/BEIJING/HONG KONG, Dec 28 (Reuters) – In March 2013, retired chemical company employee Anne Xing, her older sister and their husbands visited a China Everbright Bank branch on the outskirts of Shanghai. A private wealth manager at the bank […]

Financial Opening – Yale Law School Blog on Foreign Policy Magazine

Foreign Policy Lawfare Don’t Trust China’s Opening of Its Financial Sector Inviting foreign investors into a closed economy is a lot easier said than done. BY ANDREW COLLIER | DECEMBER 8, 2017, 7:53 AM Chinese 100 yuan notes and one U.S. dollar on Jan. 6, 2017. (Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images) Two days after President Trump left […]

Notes from China – Inflation Worries

Notes from China Beijing Sees New Problems Summary We just conducted a week of interviews in Beijing and nearby Jinan, Capital of Shandong Province. A few thoughts on these subjects: l   Inflation. l   Consumer Debt. l   Growing Receivables.  l   New Private Banks l   Rising Power of Reformer Wang Yang l   The Mantra of Private Public Partnerships   Inflation in Beijing’s Sites […]

Bloomberg Interview: Financial Opening in China

China Opens Up Financial System Daybreak Asia November 13th, 2017, 9:04 AM GMT+0800 Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research, discusses China opening up its financial system and where he sees opportunity. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-13/china-opens-up-financial-system-video

Alibaba and Tencent’s Overseas Expansion

Mobile Payment is the key Summary Domestic Competition. Tight competition for payments within China is pushing Alibaba and Tencent to explore overseas expansion. Financial Services. Both companies currently rely on Chinese tourists and business travelers. In future, the easiest entry access is via local joint ventures offering financial services such as micro-loans, which they are […]

What Will Xi Jinping Do After the Party Congress?

Fiscal Reality Limits his Power over the Economy Summary Most analysts believe Xi Jinping is likely to increase his power following the Party Congress on October 18 by strengthening his control over the Party’s Standing Committee. This, in turn, could give him the political freedom to institute economic reforms, including restructuring of state firms, and […]

HNA’s Shadow Banking

Summary Starting with a registered capital of Rmb10mn, HNA Group has grown its total assets to more than Rmb1trn. In just the past three years, the Group completed acquisitions valued at more than US$40bn. The most frequently asked question now is: where did HNA obtain its capital? Recent articles (see Financial Times, June 2, 2017) […]