Bad Economic Benchmarks in China Why Shadow Flows are a Better Indication of the Economy’s Strength than Official Data Summary A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: Interbank interest rates. The value of the yuan. The rise or decline of China’s […]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-06-22/orient-s-collier-anbang-too-big-a-company-to-fail-video
Zheshang Bank How Chinese Banks Accelerate Risks We have long maintained that the smaller Chinese banks have the highest risk profiles. This is due to their aggressive expansion of their balance sheets using risky sources of capital, along with their reliance on a much smaller market with less opportunity to spread the risk geographically. Zheshang […]
Connie Bolland, founder and chief economist at Economic Research Analysis comments on Bitcoin surging to a new record high and says people’s increasing mistrust of central banks contributes to Bitcoin’s rise. Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research says competitive Chinese airlines and banks shrinking travel budget make it difficult for Cathay Pacific to […]
“Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China.” by Andrew Collier. Palgrave Macmillan, now available on Amazon. My book, Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China, has been published by Palgrave Macmillan. It is available on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Banking-Rise-Capitalism-China-ebook/dp/B06ZZSCTWS/ref=mt_kindle?_encoding=UTF8&me= “Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism provides a highly accessible and well-informed overview […]
Summary The weak link in China’s financialized economy is the country’s Wealth Management Products. They are short in duration, widely sold by formal and informal institutions, and are invested in important institutions including corporate bonds and smaller banks. We think a run on WMPs is quite likely as banks face a rising inability to pay […]
April 10, 2017 — 11:11 AM HKT Andrew Kemp Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research joined Juliette Saly and Doug Kirzner to discuss the impact of geopolitical concerns such as the Syrian air strikes and the move of American warships to waters near North Korea. He also spoke on trade ties between the U.S. and […]
False Dawn in China’s Economy Analysts Jump too Quickly on News out of the National People’s Congress The economic news out of China recently has drawn glowingChina’s industrial output in January and February rose 6.3 per cent compared with the same period a year ago and fixed-asset investment strengthened to 8.9 per cent in the […]
Fed fund rates The US Federal Reserve Bank in a widely expected decision, has raised interest rates by 25bps. But its projections for further rates increases, economic growth and inflation were lower than expected. US treasury bond yields and the US dollar have tumbled and there has been a big reaction in emerging markets. On […]