Zheshang Bank (HK 2016) – The Risks of Small Banks in China

Zheshang Bank How Chinese Banks Accelerate Risks We have long maintained that the smaller Chinese banks have the highest risk profiles. This is due to their aggressive expansion of their balance sheets using risky sources of capital, along with their reliance on a much smaller market with less opportunity to spread the risk geographically. Zheshang […]

Radio Hong Kong: Cathay Pacific, Bitcoin, and Shadow Banking

Connie Bolland, founder and chief economist at Economic Research Analysis comments on Bitcoin surging to a new record high and says people’s increasing mistrust of central banks contributes to Bitcoin’s rise. Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research says competitive Chinese airlines and banks shrinking travel budget make it difficult for Cathay Pacific to […]

Shadow Banking in China – My New Book on Amazon

“Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China.” by Andrew Collier. Palgrave Macmillan, now available on Amazon. My book, Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China, has been published by Palgrave Macmillan. It is available on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Banking-Rise-Capitalism-China-ebook/dp/B06ZZSCTWS/ref=mt_kindle?_encoding=UTF8&me= “Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism provides a highly accessible and well-informed overview […]

Bloomberg Radio: Trump and Xi Got Credit for Showing Up

April 10, 2017 — 11:11 AM HKT Andrew Kemp Collier, Managing Director, Orient Capital Research joined Juliette Saly and Doug Kirzner to discuss the impact of geopolitical concerns such as the Syrian air strikes and the move of American warships to waters near North Korea. He also spoke on trade ties between the U.S. and […]

False Dawn in China’s Economy

False Dawn in China’s Economy Analysts Jump too Quickly on News out of the National People’s Congress The economic news out of China recently has drawn glowingChina’s industrial output in January and February rose 6.3 per cent compared with the same period a year ago and fixed-asset investment strengthened to 8.9 per cent in the […]

RTHK Radio: Fed Rate Rise and China

Fed fund rates The US Federal Reserve Bank in a widely expected decision, has raised interest rates by 25bps. But its projections for further rates increases, economic growth and inflation were lower than expected. US treasury bond yields and the US dollar have tumbled and there has been a big reaction in emerging markets. On […]

SOE Reform: Liaoning’s Struggle for Capital


One of the likely outcomes of China’s rising debt will be a shortage of liquidity for more remote geographic regions, along with corporates with little access to the power centers in Beijing. One short-term solution is the debt-for-equity swap program, which is allowing local SOEs to place the debt in the banks in the form of equity, and permitting these firms to continue to borrow from the banks. This is one tool that is keeping local governments — and their ailing state firms – alive.

However, although this program has come from Beijing, the leadership has been reluctant to allow local governments full control over the swap as it encourages continued waste of capital in inefficient, older industries. It may use political methods – the anti-corruption campaign – for fiscal ends.