Why a Trust Default Won’t Cause a Financial Crisis
ICBC Gold Product – Bank Collapse or Isolated Case?
Here are five reasons why a financial crisis caused by a trust default is unlikely.
Yangzijiang – The Shipbuilding Bank
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is an example of how large firms, state owned and private, are recycling bank loans into the Shadow Banking Market, and earning significant profits from what is essentially regulatory arbitrage.
McDonalds Versus Yum Brands. Who Will Win in China?
We attended investor meetings and store visits for both companies in September 2013 in Shanghai
Yum Brands has outpaced McDonalds in China on almost all metrics, looking at 2008-12 CAGR sales, ops profit, store expansion, margins. This is through first mover advantage and a flexible local team. The food scare for chicken supply and avian flu hurt 2013 results with 1H 2013 sales falling 6.3% YoY. Yum says it “will take some time” for margins (now 18%) to return to 20% and appears to be using this period to experiment with format and menu diversity. McDonalds is focused on a) rolling out its brand name to smaller cities and b) cutting costs. Given the diversity of its current menu and formats, KFC has the higher risk/reward profile.
Survey of KFC in China
OCR conducted a survey of sixty consumers in six Chinese cities. We asked them what they liked or didn’t like about KFC and its competitors. Two-thirds of respondents have concerns about the safety of the chain’s food more than three months after the problems with its chicken suppliers came to light. A surprisingly large number felt KFC could improve the taste and price of its food. These issues could contribute to problems in China as Yum Brands tries to maintain KFC’s large market share. KFC Survey in China
Contact
Orient Capital Research Lamma Island, Hong Kong 852-9530-4348 (Hong Kong) andrew@collierchina.com
Liquidity Crunch Could Devastate China’s SMEs
South China Morning Post
Monday, 20 January, 2014
Andrew Collier and Sara Hsu say a study of loans to China’s SMEs shows their considerable reliance on the shadow banking system, raising their risk exposure to any liquidity crunch.
A China Crash in the Making
South China Morning Post
A China crash in the making?
Tuesday, 23 July, 2013, 12:00am Business › Economy
‘Financial pressure on local governments is only likely to build’
President Xi Jinping has ambitious plans to reform the economy. Ending the land grab among local governments should be top of his list.
Xi Jinping’s Reforms – What are the Politics of Success?
Premier Xi Jinping has surprised everyone by how aggressively he has taken charge. A year ago, analysts looking at China post-leadership transition were interested in only one thing: would the new leaders continue the economic stimulus. Now, Xi is racing past stale assumptions of the glacial pace of change and quickly launching new reform policies. What are the politics he is facing?
Business
WASHINGTON — As the Syrian opposition neared a decision on whether to attend an international peace conference next week, Secretary of State John Kerry offered a public assurance on Thursday that the Obama administration had not pulled back from its goal of establishing a transitional government that would not include President Bashar al-Assad. In a […]
State Capitalism or Rule of Law in Myanmar?
The Diplomat
The country is experiencing a tug of war between military dominance and a more open democracy.
By Andrew Collier
December 23, 2013
Myanmar is facing a stark choice – open the doors to the rule of law or slide into Chinesestyle state capitalism run by the military.