South China Morning Post
A China crash in the making?
Tuesday, 23 July, 2013, 12:00am Business › Economy
‘Financial pressure on local governments is only likely to build’
President Xi Jinping has ambitious plans to reform the economy. Ending the land grab among local governments should be top of his list.
Premier Xi Jinping has surprised everyone by how aggressively he has taken charge. A year ago, analysts looking at China post-leadership transition were interested in only one thing: would the new leaders continue the economic stimulus. Now, Xi is racing past stale assumptions of the glacial pace of change and quickly launching new reform policies. What are the politics he is facing?
WASHINGTON — As the Syrian opposition neared a decision on whether to attend an international peace conference next week, Secretary of State John Kerry offered a public assurance on Thursday that the Obama administration had not pulled back from its goal of establishing a transitional government that would not include President Bashar al-Assad. In a […]
The Diplomat
The country is experiencing a tug of war between military dominance and a more open democracy.
By Andrew Collier
December 23, 2013
Myanmar is facing a stark choice – open the doors to the rule of law or slide into Chinesestyle state capitalism run by the military.
The attitude among the top leadership – and the history of the PBOC’s relationship to the Shibor – suggests that the concerns are not liquidity but the fiscal structure of local governments. The difference is important; if you think the PBOC failed to react to the Shibor hike because it was “teaching the banks a lesson,” then you miss the point that the PBOC considers the Shibor to be a sideshow compared to the issues in the larger economy.
1/17/14 China’s shadow banking tug of war | East Asia Forum
Sara Hsu, State University of New York, and Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research
The party is over for Chinese banks, who have for the last few years enjoyed record profits. Since the end of 2008, the Chinese leadership’s desperate bid to keep the wheels of growth turning has let a flood of credit into the banking system……
Our latest survey asked a simple question: what are the hottest trends in your town? We posed this question to young people in eight cities across China. We purposely left the question open ended in order to solicit wide open opinions. The results varied from the expected (KFC) to the more obeat (cosmetics for men). The survey provides insight into the sentiment and cultural mores among Chinese youth. For investors, it also pro- vides window into the buying habits of the future middle class.
CRC has completed a short survey of consumer expectations for the Chinese economy. The survey polled 120 residents in a cross-section of ten representative Chinese cities. We asked residents about a number of key economic issues, including the expected trend for inflation, GDP growth, property prices and un- employment. We conclude that there is a significant amount of concern about the future of the Chinese economy that could impact everything from property values to inflation expectations to purchasing deci- sions.
The liabilities of China’s shadow banking system are unknown and uncontrolled
By ANDREW COLLIER
Early in the debate on China, the most vehement bear was probably Jim Chanos, who in a Fortune Magazine article called China “Dubai Times 1000.” Most analysts in this debate — along with the Chinese government — are focusing on the property market. While many of the broad arguments are well known — overlending, property as proxy for savings, rising interest rates — my belief is that analyzing China’s property market using macro data provides only part of the picture. Many of the most pressing issues are really best understood as an issue of the extent of local debt.