The trade war – the Chinese response Andrew Collier | Jun 07, 2019 Executive Summary We analyze the response of China to the trade war in four buckets: politics, macro-economy, global supply chains, and technology. Of the four, China’s technological development and global supply chains are likely to suffer the most. Xi’s political power is […]
Microsoft Word – Ant’s Aggressive Strategy.docx “Ant Financial has got just enough bullets to cause a small–scale financial crisis.” Economist with a State Owned Bank. l Growing Market Share. Ant Financial has quickly taken market share from traditional banks, trust companies and other financial firms. Eventually, the regulators may reduce Ant’s consumer lending business to […]
February 19, 2019 Executive Summary There is a widespread expectation among western investors that China will enact quantitative easing to counter the effects of the trade war and the slowing economy. This is highly unlikely. Although there is substantial data indicating signiDcant pain in the economy, including defaulting SMEs, unemployment, and general declining economic activity, […]
Summary China has instituted several targeted stimulus measures designed to improve GDP growth and provide capital for small businesses, the country’s largest employment sector. These measures, however, are likely to be inadequate compared with the decline in capital due to the restrictions imposed on shadow lending. The results are likely to be: Difficulty maintaining land […]
The widening fiscal deficit will restrict further stimulus efforts Summary China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through […]
China bank survey: The return of shadow banking Andrew Collier | Conclusion Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been […]
China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China? Andrew Collier | Oct 15, 2018 I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to […]
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/03/644355816/how-trumps-latest-threatened-tariffs-could-affect-china-and-its-leadership